Construction of nomogram map of survival risk of osteosarcoma patients based on SEER database / 中国医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To construct a prognostic nomogram to predict 3-year and 5-year survival in patients with osteosarcoma.Methods A total of 1 671 patients with osteosarcoma diagnosed between 1988 and 2011 were collected from the National Cancer Institute program (SEER) database.They were randomly divided into nomogram model group (n =836) and verification group (n =835).Univariate and multivariate Cox were used to determine the independent prognostic factors in the model group,and then these factors were incorporated into the chart to predict the 3-year and 5-year survival rates of osteosarcoma patients.The consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to verify the internal and external validation of the contour map and check its prediction accuracy.Results The age,tumor location,tumor size,pathological grade,distant metastasis and surgical procedure were the independent prognostic factors of osteosarcoma patients (P＜0.05).These factors were included in the chart and successfully constructed.The C index obtained by internal validation of the chart was 0.746 (95％ CI0.719-0.773) and 0.709 (95％ CI0.682-0.735) by external validation using the validation group.At the same time,the calibration curves of the two groups were consistent.Conclusions The nomogram map of the risk of osteosarcoma patients in this study has good predictive accuracy and helps orthopedics to evaluate the prognosis of patients with osteosarcoma more accurately.It will be beneficial to individualized diagnosis and treatment of osteosarcoma patients.