The establishment and preliminary verification of a risk model for the prediction of diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes / 中华眼底病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To establish an appropriate diabetic retinopathy (DR) risk assessment model for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).Methods A retrospective clinical analysis.From January 2016 to December 2017,753 T2DM patients in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Southern Medical University were analyzed retrospectively.Digital fundus photography was taken in all patients.Fasting plasma glucose (FPG),HbA1c,total bilirubin (TB),blood platelet,total cholesterol (TC),triglyceride (TG),high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c),low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c),apolipoprotein-A (apoA),apolipoprotein-B (apoB),serum creatinine,blood urea nitrogen (BUN),blood uric acid,fibrinogen (Fg),estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) were collected.The patients were randomly assigned to model group and testify group,each had 702 patients and 51 patients respectively.Logistic regression was used to screen risk factors of DR and develop an assessment scale that can be used to predict DR.Goodness of fit was examined using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results Among 702 patients in the model group,483 patients were DR,219 patients were NDR.The scores for DR risk were duration of diabetes ≥4.5 years,4 points;total bilirubin ＜6.65 mol/L,2 points;apoA≥ 1.18 g/L,2 points;blood urea≥6.46 mmol/L,1 points;HbA1c ≥7.75％,2 points;HDL-c＜ 1.38 mmol/L,2 points;diabetic neplropathy,3 points;fibrinogen,1 point.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.787.The logistic regression analysis showed that the risk factors independently associated with DR were duration of diabetes (β=1.272,OR=3.569,95％CI 2.283-5.578,P＜0.001),TB (β=0.744,OR=2.104,95％CI 1.404-3.152,P＜0.001,BUN (β=0.401,OR=1.494,95％CI 0.996-2.240,P=0.052),HbA1c (β=0.545,OR=1.724,95％CI 1.165-2.55,P=0.006),HDL-c (β=0.666,OR=1.986,95％CI 1.149-3.298,P=0.013),diabetic nephropathy (β=1.151,OR=3.162,95％CI2.080-4.806,P=0.013),Fg (β=0.333,OR=1.396,95％CI 0.945-2.061,P=0.094).The risk model was P=1/[1+exp-(-3.799+1.272X1+0.744X2+0.769X3+0.401X4+0.545X5+0.666X6+1.151X7+0.333X8)].X1=duration of diabetes,X2=TB,X3=apoA,X4=BUN,X5=HbA1c,X6=HDL-c,X7=diabetic nephropathy,X8=Fg.The area under the ROC curve was 0.787 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test suggested excellent agreement (x2=10.125,df=8,P=0.256) in model group.The area under the ROC curve was 0.869 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test suggested excellent agreement (x2=5.345,df=7,P=0.618) in model group.Conclusion The area under the ROC curve for DR was 0.787.The duration of diabetes,TB,BUN,HbAlc,HDL-c,diabetic nephropathy,apoA,Fg are the risk factors of DR in T2DM patients.