An approach to risk isolation for relatively low-incidence conditions: An Australian national model of oral cellulitis

ABSTRACT

@#The purpose of this study was to develop a risk indicator applicable on a national level, to isolate at relatively highresolution, regions where oral cellulitis risk is high. The method used ten years of Western Australian (1999 to 2008) hospitalisation data, and applying the admission risks gleaned from this database (poverty, socioeconomics, age and Indigenous status) to model across Australia (at SA1 level) the risk profile. Five levels of oral cellulitis risk (low to very high) were mapped to each of the 54,000 SA1s that makeup Australia. Cumulative percentage analysis was used to study the effect of distance from capital city of each state on the number of population at high risk. Highest risk category (category 5) SA1s were not equally distributed amongst States, with the Northern Territory having 12.2% of its population (26011) belonging to category 5 (very high risk). The majority of that population (87.8%) live more than 100km away from the capital city, Darwin. A general trend amongst Australian capital cities was the low number of population at high risk within 5 km from General Post Office (GPO)