A preliminary study on the validity of EGRIS model predicting the risk of respiratory failure in patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome / 临床神经病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the predictive performance of EGRIS on the risk of respiratory failure in patients with Guillain-Barrésyndrome (GBS).Methods The medical records of 263 consecutive patients with GBS were retrospectively divided into two groups according to whether respiratory failure occurred during hospitalization . Model performance was quantified by using the receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis.The following parameters, such as the area under the curve (AUC), and cut-off value of the EGRIS, sensitivity and specificity corresponding to the maximum Youden Index , were then obtained.Results There were 28 ( 10.6%) patients in this group developed into respiratory failure during hospitalization.Validation of EGRIS model suggested excellent discriminative ability (AUC＝0.892, 95%CI 0.835-0.949, P＜0.05), with a cut-off score of 3.5 found to be highly sensitive (75%) and specific (85.1%) for predicting respiratory failure.Conclusion The EGRIS is a simple but accurate model to predict the risk of respiratory failure in the early stage of GBS.