Establishment of an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran
Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine
;
(12): 232-239, 2019.
Article
in Chinese
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-753236
ABSTRACT
Objective:
To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province, Iran in 2016.Methods:
Time-series data were recorded from 29201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province from 2010 to 2015 and were used to fit and predict the cases using time-series models. Different models were compared via Akaike information criterion/Bayesian information criterion statistics, residual analysis, autocorrelation function, and partial autocorrelation function sample/model. To decide on an outbreak, four endemic scores were evaluated including mean, median, mean + 2 standard deviations, and median + interquartile range of the past five years. Patients whose symptoms of cutaneous leishmaniasis began from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were included, and there were no exclusion criteria.Results:
Regarding four statistically significant endemic values, four different cutaneous leishmaniasis space-time outbreaks were detected in 2016. The accuracy of all four endemic values was statistically significant (P<0.05).Conclusions:
This study presents a protocol to set early warning systems regarding time and space features of cutaneous leishmaniasis in foursteps:
(i) to define endemic values based on which we could verify if there is an outbreak, (ii) to set different time-series models to forecast cutaneous leishmaniasis in future, (iii) to compare the forecasts with endemic values and decide on space-time outbreaks, and (iv) to set an alarm to health managers.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
Chinese
Journal:
Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine
Year:
2019
Type:
Article
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