Novel Prognostic Nomograms for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Microvascular Invasion: Experience from a Single Center
Gut and Liver
;
: 669-682, 2019.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-763883
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND/AIMS:
Microvascular invasion (MVI) is an established risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prediction models that specifically focus on the individual prognoses of HCC patients with MVI is lacking.METHODS:
A total of 385 HCC patients with MVI were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts in a 21 ratio. The outcomes were disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Prognostic nomograms were established based on the results of multivariate analyses. The concordance index (C-index), calibration plots and Kaplan-Meier curves were employed to evaluate the accuracy, calibration and discriminatory ability of the models.RESULTS:
The independent risk factors for both DFS and OS included age, tumor size, tumor number, the presence of gross vascular invasion, and the presence of Glisson's capsule invasion. The platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio was another risk factor for OS. On the basis of these predictors, two nomograms for DFS and OS were constructed. The C-index values of the nomograms for DFS and OS were 0.712 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.679 to 0.745; p<0.001) and 0.698 (95% CI, 0.657 to 0.739; p<0.001), respectively, in the training cohort and 0.704 (95% CI, 0.650 to 0.708; p<0.001) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.607 to 0.739; p<0.001), respectively, in the validation cohort. The calibration curves showed optimal agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. The Kaplan-Meier curves suggested that these two nomograms had satisfactory discriminatory abilities.CONCLUSIONS:
These novel predictive models have satisfactory accuracy and discriminatory abilities in predicting the prognosis of HCC patients with MVI after hepatectomy.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Prognosis
/
Calibration
/
Multivariate Analysis
/
Survival Rate
/
Risk Factors
/
Cohort Studies
/
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular
/
Disease-Free Survival
/
Nomograms
/
Hepatectomy
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Incidence study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Gut and Liver
Year:
2019
Type:
Article
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