Application of Lee-Carter model in the prediction of mortality risk in digestive tract cancer in Suzhou / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective A Lee-Carter model was used to predict the risk and trend of mortality in the digestive tract cancer in Suzhou from 2002 to 2016. Methods The crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated based on deaths of digestive tract cancer which was identified from Suzhou chronic disease surveillance system.We used Lee-Carter model to predict the trend of mortality in digestive tract cancer. Results The effectiveness of the results forecasted by Lee-Carter model was validated in the data of digestive tract cancer mortality from 2012 to 2016 in Suzhou. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values for the model were 2.48% and 4.13% for the age and year respectively, which indicated a well accepted prediction value. The mortality index was on the down trend in overall digestive tract cancer from 2002 to 2016, among which the mortality index in upper digestive tract cancer decreased, while the mortality index in lower digestive tract cancer increased. The mortality rate of upper digestive tract cancer was 4.23 fold higher than that of lower digestive tract cancer, and mortality rate in male was 2.17 times higher than that in female. Conclusions Our study observed a downward mortality trend in digestive tract cancer overall. Notably, the male mortality rate of lower digestive tract cancer was on an upward trend. In recent years, Suzhou has been undergoing a rapid population aging with medical and health level was increasing as well.