Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of mumps in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017 / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

@# Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiamusi city, and predict the incidence trend, so as to provide evidence for taking targeted prevention and control measures in the cold areas in Heilongjiang Province. Methods The mumps cases were collected from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017.Descriptive epidemiologic method was used for analyzing the epidemic of mumps in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to forecast the incidence of mumps in 2018. Results A total of 1 586 cases of mumps were reported in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017, the average annual incidence rate was 4.52/100 000. The incidence of mumps increased year by year from 2015 to 2017.The ratio of male to female was 1.671,those aged from 3 to 19 years accounted for 86.32% of the total cases, the higher incidence rates were found at the age of 5-9 and 10-14 years.The incidence of mumps presented obviously seasonal characteristics.Most cases concentrated from April to July and from November to January. The incidence of urban disease was higher than that of other counties; The established finally mode was ARIMA(4,1,2)(2,0,0)12 and the predicted incidence from January 2018 to June 2018 was consistent with the actual one.From July 2018 to December 2018,predictive mumps incidence were0.30/100 000, 0.35/100 000, 0.38/100 000, 0.39/100 000, 0.35/100 000, 0.33/100 000. Conclusions ARIMA model could predict the trend of mumps in Jiamusi city.To reduce the incidence of children, it is recommended to develop a second dose of mumps vaccine at the preschool age(3-6 years)or primary school;At the same time, surveillance and control should be continually strengthened in kindergartens and schools.