Joinpoint regression analysis of road traffic injuries tendency in China from 1997 to 2016 / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the tendency of road traffic injuries and explore its main influencing factors in China from 1997 to 2016, so as to provide references for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods Data was collected from national data website. Annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated and trend tests were performed by Joinpoint Regression Program 4.6.0.0. Results The overall trend of the indexes was basically the same, reaching the highest record in 2002. The following downward tendency was different and tended to level off after 2009. However, the forecast showed that the fatality of road traffic accidents would increase slightly in recent years. For different road traffic modes, only the average annual percent change of motor vehicle injuries statistically descended (AAPC=-1.83, Z=-2.23, P=0.026). The average annual decreases of non-motor vehicle deaths were statistically significant (AAPC=-1.98, Z=-2.47, P=0.014), and the number of injured showed a notable upward trend instead (AAPC=3.95, Z=5.16, P<0.001). The indexes of walking and riding were declined markedly (AAPC≥7.90, P<0.001). Conclusions The status of walking and riding had been improved significantly, but motor vehicles injuries were still the main traffic mode causing road traffic injuries. The safety situation of non-motor vehicles was increasingly serious. Adopting legal compulsory measures and other intervention to routine systematic management was quite necessary.