Lagged effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality and years of life lost in Wuxi: a time-series study / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate the effect of air temperature on non-accidental mortality (A00-R99) and years of life lost in Wuxi city. Methods Data on daily non-accidental mortality and meteorology index were collected from 2012 to 2017. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to assess the effect of temperature on non-accidental death and YLL and the cumulative effects between cold and hot temperature on non-accidental mortality and years of life lost with different lag days. Results A V-shaped relationship was noticed between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days and persisted for 14 days. Hot effects appeared acute and reached the peak at the same day. Low temperature had stronger gross effect than high temperature had. There were differences of temperature effects between different age and gender groups. Conclusions Low and high temperature were associated with elevated mortality risk. Cold effect had lagged effect and persisted for long time, however, hot effects appeared acute and the impact of low temperature was greater.