Prediction of maternal and child health care indicators in China based on GM(1,1) model / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To study the predictive effect of model ［GM(1,1)］ in China’s maternal and child health indicators, and to predict the future maternal and child health indicators in a short-term, and provide a scientific basis for the gradual improvement of maternal and child health care services in China. Methods The maternal mortality rate (MMR), neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR) were collected from 2008 to 2017 in China. Models were established and MATLAB 2018b software was used for predictive analysis. Results The prediction models of maternal mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate, infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate were as follows x