Establishment and verification of preeclampsia risk assessment model / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting pre-eclampsia, to establish a pre-eclampsia risk assessment model, and to assess the risk of pre-eclampsia early. Methods A face-to-face questionnaire survey was conducted for all women who gave birth in the Department of Obstetrics, the First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from March 2012 to September 2016. A total of 10 319 qualified questionnaires were collected to exclude 9 623 cases of other hypertensive diseases related to pregnancy. A total of 70% of the subjects were randomly selected as training samples to analyze the influencing factors of pre-eclampsia, and a Logistic regression model was established. The remaining 30% of the objects are used as test samples to verify the effect of the model. Results Logistic regression model was established with training samples. Logit P=-2.517-0.696×Pre-pregnancy lean +0.200 ×Pre-pregnancy overweight +0.944×Pre-pregnancy obesity -1.995×Residential in city -0.409×Folic acid supplemented before pregnancy +1.323×Twin and multiple pregnancy +1.708× History of previous pregnancy hypertension. Homer-Lemeshow test P=0.377. Model AUC=0.767 (95%CI0.747-0.786, P<0.001). Using the test sample to verify the model, the model sensitivity was 81.68%, the specificity was 75.05%, the positive likelihood ratio was 3.27, and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.24. The test sample model AUC = 0.771 (95%CI=0.763-0.790,P<0.001). Conclusion This study establishes a simple and effective pre-eclampsia risk assessment model with controllable factors. The model has good fit and sensitivity and specificity.