An ensemble model for forecasting infectious diseases in India

ABSTRACT

@#Time series modelling and forecasting plays an important role in various domains. The objective of this paper is to construct a simple average ensemble method to forecast the number of cases for infectious diseases like dengue and typhoid and compare it by applying models for forecasting. In this paper we have also evaluated the correlation between the number of typhoid and dengue cases with the ecological variables. The monthly data of dengue and typhoid cases from 2014 to 2017 were taken from integrated diseases surveillance programme, Government of India. This data was analysed by three models namely support vector regression, neural network and linear regression. The proposed simple average ensemble model was constructed by ensemble of three applied regression models i.e. SVR, NN and LR. We combine the regression models based upon the error metrics such as Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error. It was found that proposed ensemble method performed better in terms of forecast measures. The finding demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms as compared to already available applied models on the basis of forecast accuracy.