Analysis on relationship between influenza A (H1 N1) and meteorological conditions and its prediction model / 预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective TostudytheinfluenceofmeteorologicalconditionschangingontheactivityintensityofinfluenzaA (H1 N1 )and to establish the prediction model of H1 N1 positive rate associated with meteorological factors.Methods TheinfluenzaA(H1N1)datafromAprilof2009toJanuaryof2011insentinelhospitalanddailymeteorologicaldatain the same period were collected,which were analyzed by Spearman correlation analysis.The prediction model was establishedusingChi-squaredautomaticinteractiondetector(CHAID).Results Weeklyaverageatmospheric pressure(r =0.50),highest atmospheric pressure (r =0.51 ),lowest atmospheric pressure (r =0.50),average temperature (r=-0.40),highest atmospheric temperature(r=-0.41),lowest atmospheric temperature(r=-0.39), precipitation(r=-0.23 )and average wind speed (r=-0.22 )were positively correlated with the activity intensity of H1N1(all P<0.05).Factors that affected H1N1 positive rate were lowest atmospheric pressure,average wind speed and precipitation(P<0.05 ).The prediction model of H1 N1 positive rate showed that the correct rate of prediction was 66.67%.Conclusion Lowestatmosphericpressure,averagewindspeedandprecipitationarecloselyassociatedwith the activity intensity of influenza A (H1 N1 ).CHAID method can be used to predict the H1 N1 epidemics.