Application of poisson distribution in early warning of HFMD / 预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To understand the value of poisson distribution in monitoring and early warning of hand-foot-mouth disease( HFMD). Methods Alert data based on infectious disease reports from 2009 to 2011 were used to establish a database. Moving average method was employed to set the number of expected cases each week. The probability of outbreak was calculated by poisson's distribution. If the probability was smaller than a standard,the signal of early warning was sent out. Epidemiological investigation was used to verify it. Results Using this method,44 abnormal signals of HFMD were probed,and 33 signals were verified. The positive rate,sensitivity,specificity and Youden 's index were 75. 00%,94. 29%,35. 29% and 29. 58% respectively. Compared to the moving average control chart and the automatic early-warning information system of infectious diseases,it was more efficient. Conclusions The poisson distribution with the moving average method can be used as an effective method in early warning system of HFMD.