An analysis on the correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors with generalized additive model / 预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors in Zhejiang Province. Methods The data which was been analyzed including month case of scarlet fever and meteorological factors from JAN 2005 to DEC 201 4,were analyzed for the degree and characteristic of the correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors with generalized additive model(GAM).Results There were negative correlation between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including water vapor pressure and hours of sunshine.There were complex nonlinear correlations between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including precipitation,average barometric pressure,average wind speed and average temperature .The relationship between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including average barometric pressure,average wind speed and average temperature showed approximate quadratic function.The precipitation above 3 500(0.1 mm),average barometric pressure above 1 0 200(0.1 hPa)and under 1 0 050(0.1 hPa),average wind speed between 1 8.7 -23.6 (0.1 m/s)and average temperature between 1 00 -250 (0.1 ℃) were the suitable meteorological condition for scarlet fever.Conclusion There were complex nonlinear correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors.Precipitation,average barometric pressure,average wind speed and average temperature may be associated with the incidence of scarlet fever.