Analysis of the current situation of road traffic accidents in the 31 provinces/municipalities of China and the projection for achieving the SDGs target of halving the numbers of death and injury / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the data of road traffic accidents, deaths and injuries in 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2010 to 2017, and to predict that the number of deaths and injuries caused by road accidents set in the sustainable development goals (SDGs) will be halved by 2020 compared with the target set in 2015. Methods Describing and analyzing the current situation of road traffic accidents in 31 provinces and municipalities in China, and using the trend extrapolation method to predict whether the SDGs target can be achieved by 2020. Results The numbers of traffic accidents, deaths and injuries in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong Provinces showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2017, but still ranked the front in China. In 2017, Beijing had the highest death rate followed by Guizhou as the second, and Guizhou had the highest injury rate followed by Tianjin as the second. The projected results showed that the numbers of deaths and injuries caused by road traffic accidents in China would be increased by 17% and 1.3% respectively in 2020 indicating that SDGs target could not be met. Among the 31 provinces/municipalities, it was predicted that the numbers of deaths and injuries in Hunan would be reduced to 50.7% and 65.3% in 2015, respectively by 2020, and the target could be achieved; the number of injuries in Shanghai was decreased by 83.3%, but the deaths was only decreased by 34.5%, and there was still a gap with the target; the rest 29 provinces/municipalities could not meet SDGs target. It was expected that the deaths in 11 provinces and municipalities would increase by 2020, with Beijing, Jilin, Jiangxi, Hubei and Guizhou Provinces showing the most significant growth. The number of injured people in 8 provinces and municipalities shows an increasing trend, with Jilin, Jiangxi, Hubei and Guizhou provinces showing significant growth. Conclusions Except for Hunan Province, it was difficult for the whole country and the rest provinces and municipalities to reach the SDGs target. According to the forecast results and the actual situation, a targeted scientific prevention and control strategy can be formulated. The measures taken by Hunan and Shanghai in traffic accident prevention and control were effective and worth learning.