The death trend of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway in China from 1990 to 2017 / 中华预防医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To analyze the current situation and the trend of the death due to foreign body in airway in children less than 5 years old in China from 1990 to 2017.@*Methods@#Using the mortality data of foreign body in airway in China from 1990 to 2017 from the Global Disease Burden 2017 (data covered 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, as well as Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan Province) to describe the death status of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway in China, and to calculate the relative change and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of mortality rate and proportion of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway between 1990 and 2017. The robust linear regression was performed with the first-order lag of mortality, and the supremum Wald test was used to explore whether the mortality trend had obvious structural changes around a certain time point.@*Results@#In 2017, the mortality rate of children under 5 years old due to foreign body in airway in China was 8.57/100 000 (95%UI 7.41/100 000-9.57/100 000), and there was no significant difference between boys (9.05/100 000, 95%UI 6.82/100 000-10.23/100 000) and girls (8.02/100 000, 95%UI 7.02/100 000-9.12/100 000). The supremum Wald test showed that there was a structural change around the year of 2005 (P<0.001) in terms of the mortality rate of foreign body in the airway among children under 5 years old, which depicted a relatively stable trend before 2005 and a significant downward trend after 2005. Compared with 1990, the mortality rate of foreign body in airway among children, boys and girls under 5 years old in 2017 decreased by 49.32% (95%UI 37.78%-65.41%), 41.22% (95%UI 25.68%-68.26%) and 56.91% (95%UI 44.78%-66.70%), respectively; the mortality proportion of foreign body in airway among increased by 153.33% (95%UI 75.99%-204.56%), 171.05% (95%UI 48.75%-239.63%) and 137.90% (95%UI 86.62%-198.09%), respectively; the rank of foreign body in airway in all disease increased by 6 and became the first leading cause of injury from the second.@*Conclusion@#From 1990 to 2017, the mortality rate of foreign body in airway among children, boys and girls under 5 years old in China generally showed a downward trend. Compared with 1990, the mortality proportion of foreign body in airway among these population increased by a relatively large extent in 2017.