The analyze the epidemic trend and predict the incidence trend of occupational diseases in Guangdong province / 中华劳动卫生职业病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective@#This study was aimed to analyze the epidemic trend and predict the incidence trend of occupational diseases during 2006-2015 in Guangdong province, which may provide the theoretical foundation for occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention.@*Methods@#We analyzed the number of reported occupational disease cases, the constituent ratio, the average age and working-age of patients. We also performed the linear-by-linear association test of new incidence, median age and median working-age by curve-fitting method, of which the diagnostic year was set as the independent variable. Meanwhile, we designed an ARIMA model to predict the variation tendency of occupational diseases in 2017-2020.@*Results@#(1) During 2006-2015, the total reported cases of occupational disease is 5289, including 2101 cases of occupational pneumoconiosis (39.7%) , 1363 cases of occupational poisoning (25.8%) , and 864 cases of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease (16.3%) . (2) The number of occupational diseases and pneumoconiosis have a straight upward trend (R2=0.851, R2=0.856) , while the number of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease and occupational tumor have a exponential trend (R2=0.914, R2=0.696) . The constituent ratio of occupational poisoning is decreasing, and the constituent ratio of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease is increasing. (3) The average onset age is 40 (33, 46) years old, and the average onset working-age is 6 (3, 11) years. Both of them have a straight upward trend (R2=0.954、R2=0.792) . The onset age of pneumoconiosis, occupational poisoning and occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease have a upward trend. In addition, the onset working-age of occupational poisoning and pneumoconiosis have a upward trend. (4) The number of occupational diseases in 2017-2020 is predicted to be between 902-1231.@*Conclusion@#Occupational diseases in Guangdong province showed a trend of high incidence. The age and working-age of occupational diseases showed an extended trend. Therefore, our work of occupational epidemic trend may provide some bases for the occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention.