Analysis of predictive efficacy of EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SinoSCORE for patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery in single center / 天津医药
Tianjin Medical Journal
;
(12): 700-707, 2018.
Article
in Chinese
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-809745
ABSTRACT
@#Objective TocomparethepredictiveefficacyofEuroSCOREⅡandSinoSCOREinthepostoperative mortalityofChinesepatientsunderwentcoronaryarterybypassgrafting(CABG). Methods Theclinicaldataof4507 patientswithCABGatourdepartmentinJanuary2011andApril2015wereretrospectivelyanalyzed.Cardiovascularrisk stratificationwasperformedonpatientsusingEuroSCOREⅡandSinoSCORE.PatientsweredividedintoⅠ,Ⅱ,ⅢandⅣ groupsaccordingtothepredictedfatalityrates.Themortalityrateswerepredictedinallgroupsofpatientsrespectively. Predictive effectiveness was analyzed by the analysis of discernment and calibration force. Results The in-hospital mortalityratewas1.35%inallpatients,whilethemeanmortalityratepredictedbyEuroSCOREⅡwas1.470%±1.215% (95%CI:1.43-1.50), and predicted by SinoSCORE was 2.860%±3.454% (95% CI:2.76-2.96). The AUC values of EuroSCOREⅡandSinoSCOREwere0.728and0.716.ItwasfoundthatthecalibrationdegreeofEuroSCOREⅡwaspoor andSinoSCOREwasacceptabledetectedbyHosmer-LemeshowTest.EuroSCOREⅡunderestimatedthemortalityratesof groupⅣ,butoverestimatedmortalityratesinothergroupsofpatients.SinoSCOREunderestimatedmortalityratesofpatients ingroupⅠandoverestimatedmortalityratesinothergroupsofpatients.EuroSCOREⅡonlyachievedgooddiscrimination forpatientsofgroupⅠ(AUC=0.707),andSinoSCOREachievedgooddiscriminationforpatientsofgroupⅡ(AUC=0.754). EuroSCOREⅡoverestimatedthemortalityrateintheisolatedCABGgroupandunderestimatedmortalityratesinpatients withothercardiacsurgeries.SinoSCOREoverestimatedmortalityratesingroupⅡ.TheAUCvaluesofEuroSCOREⅡand SinoSCOREwere0.694and0.687inisolatedCABGgroup.TheAUCvaluesofEuroSCOREⅡandSinoSCOREwere0.772 and0.669inCABGcombinedwithothercardiacsurgeries.Conclusion EuroSCOREⅡhasagoodpredictiveefficacyin theentiregroupofpatientsandⅠ,ⅡandⅢgroups,buthasapoorperformanceingroupⅣ.SinoSCOREoverestimates mortalityratesintheentiregroupandⅠ,ⅡandⅢgroups,anditunderestimatesmortalityratesinpatientsofgroupⅠ. Theapplicationandestablishmentofriskmodelsshouldfocusondifferentheartdiseasesanddifferentrisklevels,andthe modelingmethodofestablishedrisksystemsneedstobeimproved.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
Chinese
Journal:
Tianjin Medical Journal
Year:
2018
Type:
Article
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS