The study of nomogram based on Ishak inflammation score for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection / 中华外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To investigate the correlation between Ishak inflammation score and the clinicopathological characteristics and recurrence of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative resection, and then set up a recurrence nomogram for HCC.@*Methods@#A total of 326 patients with HCC after curative resection from January 2006 to December 2009 were studied retrospectively as training cohort and 110 HCC patients after surgery from January 2010 to December 2012 were used as validation cohort.Clinical follow-up data and peritumoral Ishak inflammation score in training cohort were used to set up a nomogram predicting recurrence of HCC, which was verified by validation cohort. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression model were used to analyzed accuracy of model prediction.@*Results@#According to Ishak inflammation score, patients were divided into four subgroups Grade Ⅰ(1-4 scores), Grade Ⅱ(5-8 scores), Grade Ⅲ (9-12 scores) and Grade Ⅳ(13-18 scores). Ishak inflammation score were associated with aspartate transaminase(median 36.0 U/L, P=0.011), γ-glutamyl transpeptidase(median 54.5 U/L, P=0.005), HBV-DNA load(20.5%>106 copies/ml, P=0.015) and microvascular invasion(26.7% positive, P=0.021). Multivariate analysis showed that Ishak inflammation score(P=0.007), HBV-DNA load(P<0.01), tumor size(P=0.001) and microvascular invasion(P=0.001) were related with the recurrence of HCC patients.These four risk factors were incorporated into the nomogram.Calibration curves of the nomogram had good agreement between prediction and observation in the probability of recurrence.Both C-indexes and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses revealed that this nomogram had better predictive abilities than those of the AJCC and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage systems.These results were verified by the validation cohort.@*Conclusion@#A nomogram based on Ishak inflammation score could accurately predict the recurrence of HCC and contribute to HCC relapse surveillance after curative hepatectomy.