Nomogram: an effective prognostic model for esophageal cancer with lung metastasis / 中国实用内科杂志

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To establish a prediction model for the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis.METHODS: Data from 194 patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis from 2010 to 2015 was collected from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology and End RESULTS:(SEER) database. The best cutoff value for age was determined by X-tile software.Prognostic factors were analyzed by SPSS(v25.0) with the log-rank method and the Cox proportional hazard model. Risk factors from univariate analysis were used to construct prediction nomogram with R studio software(version 3.5.1). RESULTS: The median survival time of 194 patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis was 7.0 months, the 3-month survival rate was 69.9%, and the 1-year survival rate was 27.7%. Age(HR=1.51, 95% CI 1.066-2.140) and pathological type(HR=0.736, 95% CI 0.543-0.998) were independent prognostic factors for patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis. The value of C-index was 0.634(95% CI=0.585-0.683). CONCLUSION: For patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis, being young and adenocarcinoma are associated with a better prognosis. The prediction of the nomogram is good.