Hypoalbuminemia, Low Base Excess Values, and Tachypnea Predict 28-Day Mortality in Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Patients in the Emergency Department
Yonsei Medical Journal
;
: 1361-1369, 2016.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-81712
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
The objective of this study was to develop a new nomogram that can predict 28-day mortality in severe sepsis and/or septic shock patients using a combination of several biomarkers that are inexpensive and readily available in most emergency departments, with and without scoring systems. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
We enrolled 561 patients who were admitted to an emergency department (ED) and received early goal-directed therapy for severe sepsis or septic shock. We collected demographic data, initial vital signs, and laboratory data sampled at the time of ED admission. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set or validation set. For the training set, we generated models using independent variables associated with 28-day mortality by multivariate analysis, and developed a new nomogram for the prediction of 28-day mortality. Thereafter, the diagnostic accuracy of the nomogram was tested using the validation set.RESULTS:
The prediction model that included albumin, base excess, and respiratory rate demonstrated the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.8173 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7605–0.8741]. The logistic analysis revealed that a conventional scoring system was not associated with 28-day mortality. In the validation set, the discrimination of a newly developed nomogram was also good, with an AUC value of 0.7537 (95% CI, 0.6563–0.8512).CONCLUSION:
Our new nomogram is valuable in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with severe sepsis and/or septic shock in the emergency department. Moreover, our readily available nomogram is superior to conventional scoring systems in predicting mortality.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Shock, Septic
/
Biomarkers
/
Multivariate Analysis
/
ROC Curve
/
Mortality
/
Sepsis
/
Area Under Curve
/
Hypoalbuminemia
/
Nomograms
/
Discrimination, Psychological
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Yonsei Medical Journal
Year:
2016
Type:
Article
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