COVID-19 analysis and forecast based on Exponential Smoothing Model in Hubei Province / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze and forecast the epidemic of the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in Hubei Province. Methods Exponential Smoothing Model was applied to fit the tendency of the number of confirmed cases, discharged cases, death cases, severe cases and critical cases. Results The epidemic of COVID-19 in Hubei province has been gradually alleviated, the rapid remission period and slow remission period were occurred after February 18th and March 21st, respectively. The Exponential Smoothing Model was significantly fit well and the fitting values were basically consistent with the actual values. Predicted results indicated that the number of existing confirmed cases was expected to reduce to less than 1 000 on April 2nd, and was mainly consist of severe and critical cases. Conclusions The prevention and control measures of COVID-19 in Hubei province were effective, and the Exponential Smoothing Model was applicable to predicate the epidemic of COVID-19.