Principles of dynamics model and its application in forecasting the epidemics and evaluation the efforts of prevention and control interventions / 中华预防医学杂志
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
;
(12): E032-E032, 2020.
Article
in Chinese
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-821116
ABSTRACT
During the epidemics of COVID-19 in domestic China and recently continuing rapid spread worldwide, a bunch of studies fitted the epidemics by transmission dynamics model to nowcast and forecast the trend of epidemics of COVID-19. However, due to little known of the new virus in early stage and much uncertainty in the comprehensive strategies of prevention and control for epidemics, majority of models, not surprisingly, predict in less accuracy, although the dynamics model has its great value in better understanding of transmission. This comment discusses the principle assumptions and limitations of the dynamics model in forecasting the epidemic trend, as well as its great potential role in evaluation the efforts of prevention and control strategies.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
Chinese
Journal:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
Year:
2020
Type:
Article
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