Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Establishment of a nomogram for predicting the severity of the first-onset acute pancreatitis / 中华胰腺病杂志
Chinese Journal of Pancreatology ; (6): 420-424, 2019.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM | ID: wpr-824008
ABSTRACT
Objective To establish a visualized nomogram with early predictive value for the severity of first-onset acute pancreatitis ( AP ) . Methods 706 cases of first-onset AP patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University within 72 hours from January 2013 to January 2016 were collected. According to the revised Atlanta classification of AP in 2012, AP patients was divided into non-severe pancreatitis ( NSAP, also called mild acute pancreatitis and moderately severe acute pancreatitis) group and severe acute pancreatitis ( SAP) group. The demographic data ( age, body mass index and admission time, etc) and laboratory tests (serum amylase, blood sugar, albumin, white blood cells, creatinine, urea nitrogen) were collected and statistically analyzed. Logistic univariate and multivariant regression analysis were performed based on the relevant clinical indicators. The statistically significant indicators were used to obtain regression equations. The R-language software was used to obtain the visualized nomogram via LR model, which was further validated by ROC curve analysis. Results In univariate logistic regression analysis, the OR ( 95%CI) values of blood glucose, creatinine at admission and 24 h after admission, urea nitrogen at admission and 24 h after admission, white blood cell, albumin in NSAP group and SAP group were 1. 132(1. 080-1. 186), 1. 019(1. 013-1. 025), 1. 026(1. 020-1. 033), 1. 066(1. 035-1. 099), 1. 333(1. 241-1. 432), 1. 083 (1.032-1.136), and 0.853(0.811-0.889), and all the differences were statistically significant (all P values <0. 05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the regression equation of the LR model was Y= -2. 657-0. 116 × albumin(g/L) +0. 082 × white blood cell( × 109/L) +0. 118 × glycemia(mmol/L) +0. 022 × 24 h after admission creatinine (μmol/L). A total score of more than 60 points on the nomogram predicted the possibility of SAP. If the total score exceeded 130, the possibility of SAP may be up to 14% or more. Furthermore, the ROC curve analysis confirmed that the sensitivity and specificity of LR model established in this study for predicting of SAP were superior to those of urea nitrogen, creatinine and BISAP score alone by AUC, respectively. Conclusions This nomogram may be a useful clinical tool for predicting the severity of the first-onset acute pancreatitis.

Full text: Available Index: WPRIM (Western Pacific) Type of study: Prognostic study Language: Chinese Journal: Chinese Journal of Pancreatology Year: 2019 Type: Article

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS

Full text: Available Index: WPRIM (Western Pacific) Type of study: Prognostic study Language: Chinese Journal: Chinese Journal of Pancreatology Year: 2019 Type: Article