Estimation of AIDS epidemic in Wuhan using Workbook model / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To estimate the current status of the epidemic of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Wuhan in 2017, and to provide a scientific basis for developing HIV/AIDS prevention strategies. Methods A Workbook model was used to estimate the 2017 HIV/AIDS epidemic in Wuhan using Wuhan demographic data and HIV/AIDS epidemiological data. The Chi-square test was used to compare the differences in gender and transmission routes between the epidemic estimates and the case report data. Results It was estimated that there were 6,008 surviving adult HIV/AIDS cases in Wuhan in 2017. The estimated prevalence of HIV infection in Wuhan was 0.064% in 2017. The estimated detection rate for HIV/AIDS was 75.0%. Among the 6,008 adult HIV/AIDS cases, 4,017 (66.9%) were transmitted through homosexual behaviors, 1,803 (30.0%) were transmitted through heterosexual behaviors, and 188 (3.1%) were transmitted through injecting drugs. The estimated detection rates of HIV/AIDS cases infected by homosexual behavior, heterosexual behavior and drug injection were respectively 73.89%, 78.81% and 48.94%. Conclusion The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Wuhan was still in a low prevalence state, but nearly a quarter of the infected HIV/AIDS cases had not been detected yet. Homosexual behaviors contributed most to HIV/AIDS epidemic in Wuhan, and heterosexual behaviors among spouse/fixed sexual partners also accounted for a certain proportion of HIV/AIDS epidemic. In order to further improve HIV detection rate and curb HIV transmission, it is necessary to explore more effective HIV monitoring and testing practices to detect HIV/AIDS cases as early as possible, especially among high-risk populations and their sexual partners.