Study on the epidemic development of COVID-19 in Hubei province by a modified SEIR model / 浙江大学学报·医学版

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE@#To establish a SEIR epidemic dynamics model that can be used to evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic, and to predict and evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei province using the proposed model.@*METHODS@#COVID-19 SEIR transmission dynamics model was established, which took transmission ability in latent period and tracking quarantine interventions into consideration. Based on the epidemic data of Hubei province from January 23, 2020 to February 24, 2020, the parameters of the newly established modified SEIR model were fitted. By using Euler integral algorithm to solve the modified SEIR dynamics model, the epidemic situation in Hubei province was analyzed, and the impact of prevention and control measures such as quarantine and centralized treatment on the epidemic development was discussed.@*RESULTS@#The theoretical estimation of the epidemic situation by the modified SEIR epidemic dynamics model is in good agreement with the actual situation in Hubei province. Theoretical analysis showed that prevention and control quarantine and medical follow-up quarantine played an important inhibitory effect on the outbreak of the epidemic.The centralized treatment played a key role in the rapid decline in the number of infected people. In addition, it is suggested that individuals should improve their prevention awareness and take strict self-protection measures to curb the increase in infected people.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The modified SEIR model is reliable in the evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei province, which provides a theoretical reference for the decision-making of epidemic interventions.