Comparing the potential effectiveness of interventions against coronavirus 2019 outbreak in the Lao PDR: a mathematical modeling approach / Lao Medical Journal

ABSTRACT

@#This is a policy brief article on the prediction of Covid-19 outbreak and its prevention and control for the possible second wave in the Lao PDR. Compartmental dynamic modeling was created to reflect the natural history of Covid-19. This included susceptible, symptomatic and asymptomatic states and recovery or death. The simulation was done for one year and with two scenarios 1) high transmission level (R0=5.2) and 2) mid -transmission level (R0=2.0). The model output showed that the size of the outbreak depended on the transmission level, and could reach to 85% of the Lao population with high transmission scenario. However, disease burden was predicted to be smaller with the interventions. Among these, voluntary home quarantine was found to be the most effective, but the predication reverses in the mid-level transmission scenario. Social distancing is much more effective. If there are imported COVID-19 cases, a new wave could occur in two weeks to 2 months, depending on the size of pandemic and efficacy of the rest of interventions. Mid-level lockdown would result in new epidemic starting by July 2020, but the number of infected people would be less if travel bans and social distancing are maintaining. Only high-level lockdown would be able to stop community transmission in the country.