Value of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatic sinus obstruction syndrome associated with Gynura segetum (Lour.) Merr / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo investigate the value of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score in predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatic sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (HSOS) associated with Gynura segetum (Lour.) Merr. MethodsA total of 49 patients with HSOS associated with Gynura segetum (Lour.) Merr. who were admitted to Beijing YouAn Hospital, Beijing Ditan Hospital, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Tianjin Third Central Hospital, and The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University from January 2012 to July 2018 were enrolled and followed up for three years, with death as the outcome event. MELD and CTP scores were calculated according to the laboratory examination and clinical data on admission, and according to CTP score, the patients were divided into CTP class A (CTP score 5-6) group(n=8), CTP class B (CTP score 7-9) group(n=23), and CTP class C (CTP score ≥10) group(n=18). The patients were divided into death group(n=12) and survival group(n=37) according to the clinical outcome during follow-up. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between groups, and the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for ranked data. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to investigate the ability of CTP and MELD scores in predicting death. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to determine the long-term prognosis of patients with different CTP and MELD scores, and the log-rank test was used for comparison. The ROC curve was used to evaluate the performance of these two scoring systems in predicting death. ResultsA total of 12 patients died during the 3-year follow-up period. The patients with HSOS had a median MELD score of 13.443 (8.792-18.379), and the death group had a significantly higher MELD score than the survival group ［19.84 (15.49-25.41) vs 11.58 (8.60-15.79), Z=-3.511, P＜0.001］. The patients with HSOS had a CTP score of 6-12, and of all 49 patients, 8 (16.3%) had CTP class A HSOS, 23 (46.9%) had CTP class B HSOS, and 18 (36.7%) had CTP class C HSOS. The mortality rate of the patients increased significantly with the increase in CTP score (χ2=16.078, P＜0.05). The mortality rates of the patients with CTP class A, B, and C HSOS were 0.0%, 13.0%, and 50.0%, respectively (χ2=10343, P＜0.05). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the patients with a MELD score of ＜14.294 4 had a significantly better 3-year prognosis than those with a MELD score of ≥14.294 4 (χ2=14.893, P＜0.001). The higher the CTP score, the poorer the 3-year prognosis of patients (χ2=11.083, P＜0.05). CTP class had an AUC of 0.780 (95% confidence interval ［CI］ 0.639-0.922) in predicting the prognosis of HSOS patients, while MELD score had an AUC of 0.840 (95%CI 0.722-0.958), and there was no significant difference between the two scores (Z=2.63, P＞0.05). ConclusionBoth MELD and CTP scores can predict the risk of death in patients with HSOS, with similar performance in predicting the prognosis of patients, and further studies are needed to validate their clinical value.