Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020 / Journal of the Korean Cancer Association, 대한암학회지

ABSTRACT

Purpose@#This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2020to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden. @*Materials and Methods@#Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2017 were obtained from the Korea National CancerIncidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2018 were acquired from StatisticsKorea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regressionmodel to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years and then by multiplyingthe projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A Joinpoint regression modelwas used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only usedthe data of the latest trend. @*Results@#In total, 243,263 new cancer cases and 80,546 cancer deaths are expected to occur inKorea in 2020. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by thestomach, thyroid, colon/rectum, and breast. These five cancers types are expected to representhalf of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of canceramong people who die is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colon/rectal, pancreatic,and stomach cancers. @*Conclusion@#The incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually.These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resourcefor planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.