Application of ARIMA model in forecasting monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis / 第二军医大学学报

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the variation of the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis with time in Chongqing, so to provide a scientific evidence for the control and prevention of tuberculosis. Methods Using the SPSS 13. 0 software, we established an ARIMA model with the monthly incidence data of smear-positive tuberculosis (2005-2009), and the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2010. The short-term forecasting efficacy was evaluated. Results The established ARIMA (1, 1, 0) × (0, 1,1)12 model was suitable for forecasting the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing. The observed values of 2005-2009 were in the 95% confidence interval of the fitted values, and the average relative error of the predictive value was 6. 31% for 2010. Conclusion ARIMA (1,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 model can satisfactorily forecast the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing, which provides a reliable evidence for control and prevention of tuberculosis.