Related factors of gastric neuroendocrine tumor prognosis and construction of the scoring system / 西安交通大学学报(医学版)

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the prognostic factors of gastric neuroendocrine tumors and construct a visual scoring system. Methods: The clinical data of patients with gastric neuroendocrine tumors with complete follow-up data from 2004 to 2012 in the SEER database were analyzed. Kaplan-Miere survival curves were plotted, Log-rank test was used for single factor analysis, COX regression was used for multivariate analysis, and nomogram was used to visualize the COX regression scoring system. Results: Univariate analysis showed that gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, being multiple, tumor grade, TNM stage, tumor location, histological type, and surgery were risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with gastric neuroendocrine tumors. Multivariate COX regression analysis showed that gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, being multiple, tumor grade, N stage, M stage, and surgery were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with gastric neuroendocrine tumors. The predictive value of the 3, 5, and 10-year of prediction models was significantly higher than the prognostic value of the sixth edition of the AJCC TNM staging system, with significant difference (3-year Z=13.178, P<0.000 1; 5-year Z=11.462, P<0.000 1; 10-year Z=4.298, P<0.000 1). Conclusion: Many related factors affect the prognosis of gastric neuroendocrine tumors. The visual nomogram drawn in this study can calculate the patient's 3-year, 5-year and 10-year survival rate according to the patient's score. The predictive value is obviously superior to that of the TNM staging system, which has important guiding significance for clinical work.