Influencing factors for the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo investigate the influencing factors for the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). MethodsClinical data were collected from 240 HBV-ACLF patients without liver transplantation who were admitted To The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University from January 2009 to December 2019, and the patients were divided into groups according to survival on days 28 and 90 after admission (28-day survival group with 164 patients and 28-day death group with 76 patients; 90-day survival group with 140 patients and 90-day death group with 100 patients). The data collected included predisposing factors, liver function parameters, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na) score, and complications. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to calculate the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and a multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF. ResultsThe main predisposing factors of HBV-ACLF included spontaneous activation of HBV (55.6%) and HBV activation caused by the withdrawal of or resistance to nucleoside analogues (25.2%). There were significant differences in age, prothrombin time activity (PTA), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), serum sodium, MELD score, MELD-Na score, and total bilirubin (TBil) at baseline between the 28-day survival group and the 28-day death group (Z=-2.400,-6.015, -5.070, -5.103, -5.044, -7.430, and -6.637, all P＜0.05), and there were also significant differences in age, PTA, NLR, serum sodium, MELD score, MELD-Na, TBil, and cholesterol at baseline between the 90-day survival group and the 90-day death group (Z=-2.205, -7.728, -3.335, -4.015, -6.053, -7.908, -6.655, and -3.607, all P＜0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that TBil ＞260.20 mmol/L (odds ratio ［OR］=4.572, 95% confidence interval ［CI］ 1.321-15823, P＜0.05), PTA ＜24.8% (OR=8.934, 95%CI 3.026-26.374, P＜0.05), NLR＞5.63 (OR=2.632, 95%CI 1.126-6.152, P＜0.05), serum sodium ＜130.8 mmol/L (OR=27.467, 95%CI 6.113-123.423, P＜0.05), MELD score ＞17.84 (OR=4.303, 95%CI 1.048-17.663, P＜0.05), and MELD-Na score ＞25.1 (OR=3.453, 95%CI 1.614-7.387, P＜0.05) were independent risk factors for 28-day survival; TBil＞260.20 mmol/L (OR=5.148, 95%CI 1.918-13.822, P＜0.05), PTA ＜25.5% (OR=15.718, 95%CI 5.161-47.866, P＜0.05), serum sodium ＜135.3 mmol/L (OR=10.080, 95%CI 3.244-31.323, P＜005), MELD score ＞17.84 (OR=11.157, 95%CI 2.580-48.254, P＜0.05), MELD-Na score ＞25.1 (OR=4.391, 95%CI 2057-9.372, P＜0.05) were independent risk factors for 90-day survival. Among the 240 patients, 160 (66.7%) experienced infection within 90 days, among whom 140 had bacterial infection, 12 had viral infection, and 8 had fungal infection. The 160 patients with infection had a significantly higher 90-day mortality rate than the patients without infection (46.3% vs 32.5%, χ2=6.720, P=0.010). Of all 240 patients, 176 had ascites, 44 had pleural effusion, 36 had acute renal injury, 60 had hepatic encephalopathy, and 12 had gastrointestinal bleeding within 28 days, and there were significant differences in the proportion of patients with acute renal injury, grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ hepatic encephalopathy, or gastrointestinal bleeding between the 28-day survival group and the 28-day death group (χ2=64.088，29811，7.797，all P＜0.05). ConclusionTBil, PTA, serum sodium, MELD score, and MELD-Na score at baseline are independent risk factors for the 28- and 90-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF. Liver inflammation and necrosis caused by HBV activation may be the initiating factor for ACLF, and infection, acute renal injury, hepatic encephalopathy, and gastrointestinal bleeding are the main complications affecting the prognosis of patients.