Risk factors of portal vein thrombosis in cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors for portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices, and to establish a nomogram for predicting the risk of PVT. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 283 cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices who attended Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University from December 2013 to December 2018, and according to imaging findings, the patients were divided into PVT group with 119 patients and non-PVT group with 164 patients. The t-test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen out independent risk factors; a nomogram was established and validated based on the results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis, and C-index and calibration curve were used to evaluate its performance. ResultsThe univariate analysis showed that compared with the non-PVT group, the PVT group had significantly higher Child-Pugh class (χ2=9.388, P=0.009), proportion of patients with a history of splenectomy (χ2=26.805, P＜0.001), white blood cell count (Z=-2.248, P=0.025), platelet count (Z=-3.323, P=0.001), D-dimer(Z=-6.236, P＜0.001), and spleen thickness (Z=-2.432, P=0.015) and a significantly lower level of triglyceride (TG) (Z=-4.150, P＜0.001). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a reduction in TG (odds ratio ［OR］=0.441, 95% confidence interval ［CI］ 0.190-0.889), an increase in D-dimer (OR=1.151, 95%CI 1.041-1.272), prolonged prothrombin time (PT) (OR=1160, 95%CI 1.025-1.313), and a history of splenectomy (OR=2.933, 95%CI 1.164-7.389) were independent risk factors for PVT in cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices. In addition, a nomogram was established based on the results of the multivariate regression analysis, with a C-index of 0.745, and the calibration curve showed good consistency between the observed and predicted values for the development of PVT. ConclusionA reduction in TG, an increase in D-dimer, prolonged PT, and a history of splenectomy are independent risk factors for PVT in cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices, and the nomogram developed based on these results can provide a quantitative and intuitive tool for clinicians to assess the risk of PVT.