Spatiotemporal correlation analysis of the etiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture from 2013 to 2018 / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the etiological spatialtemporal distribution characteristics of coxsackievirus A16 (CoxA16) and enterovirus 71 (EV71) in children with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, and to provide references for its prevention and control.Methods:Real-time polymerase chain reaction(PCR) was used to detect the etiology of children with HFMD in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018, including CoxA16 and EV71. Spatialtemporal correlation analysis of CoxA16 and EV71 were performed by ArcGIS 10 and SaTScanv 9.6 softwares.Results:Among 3 527 pathogen samples, EV71 was dominant with 12.0%(91/758) in 2013, 40.4%(180/446) in 2014, and 26.7%(155/581) in 2017. CoxA16 was the dominant pathogen with 29.9%(162/541) in 2015, 40.0%(219/547) in 2016, and 13.8%(90/654) in 2018. According to the pathogen detection data from 2013 to 2018, the detection rate of CoxA16 pathogen was higher than that of EV71 ( χ2=1 128.72, P<0.05). CoxA16 and EV71 were aggregated from summer to autumn. CoxA16 was presented with clustered distribution ( Moran′ s index=0.344, P<0.05), and the hot spots of CoxA16 were Xiangyun County ( Z=2.72, P<0.01) and Midu County ( Z=1.68, P<0.1). The radius radiates was 39.00 km from the center of Xiangyun County (log likelihood ratio ( LLR)=40.178, P<0.05). EV71 was presented with discretely distribution ( Moran′ s index=-0.194, P>0.05), and the hot spots of EV71 were Heqing County ( Z=2.14, P<0.05), Jianchuan County ( Z=1.76, P<0.1) and Dali City ( Z=1.71, P<0.1). The main gathering area was the radiation radius of 64.21 km centered of Eryuan County ( LLR=39.376, P<0.05). Conclusions:There are spatiotemporal aggregations of CoxA16 and EV71 in childhood cases with HFMD. The monitoring should be strengthened, and the disease should be scientifically prevented and controlled.