Analysis of risk factors for death in patients with corona virus disease 2019 / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk factors for death in patients with corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Methods:The clinical data of 141 cases of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from February 1 to February 26, 2020 were included in this retrospective analysis. The gender, age, time of hospitalization after the onset, clinical manifestations, underlying diseases, laboratory examination indicators (inculding white blood cell counts, neutrophil counts, lymphocyte counts, lymphocyte subsets, immunoglobulin, complement 3, complement 4, D-dimer, fibrinogen), and short term prognosis were compared between the death group and the survival group. Logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing the death of COVID-19 patients. The t test, Mann Whitney U test or chi-square test were used for comparison between groups. Results:Of the 141 COVID-19 patients, 52 died and 89 survived. The age, hypertension, chronic respiratory diseases, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, fever and wheeze of patients in the death group were all higher than those in the survival group, which were (70.7±13.3) years old vs (50.4±15.3) years old, 51.9%(27/52) vs 14.6%(13/89), 15.4%(8/52) vs 4.5%(4/89), 30.8%(16/52) vs 7.9%(7/89), 80.8%(42/52) vs 61.8%(55/89) and 50.0%(26/52) vs 25.8%(23/89), respectively. The differences were all statistically significant ( t=7.972, χ2=22.104, 3.615, 12.392, 5.503 and 8.447, respectively, all P<0.05). The white blood cell count, neutrophil count, CD4 + /CD8 + T lymphocyte, immunoglobulin E, D-dimer, fibrinogen, CD19 + T lymphocyte proportion and CD19 + T lymphocyte count of patients in the death group were all higher than those in the survival group, which were 8.20(5.26, 13.01)×10 9/L vs 5.29(3.96, 7.04)×10 9/L, 7.40(4.54, 11.46)×10 9/L vs 3.16(2.20, 5.01)×10 9/L, 2.32(1.77, 3.11) vs 1.63(1.25, 2.08), 125.0(42.6, 275.0) IU/mL vs 66.8(38.3, 143.0) IU/mL, 7.27(2.11, 16.21) mg/L vs 0.95(0.38, 2.54) mg/L, 4.37(2.72, 6.78) g/L vs 4.10(2.78, 4.97) g/L, (23.19±13.43)% vs (15.38±6.38)%, and (181.5±115.4)/μL vs (98.89±77.64)/μL, respectively. The differences were all statistically significant ( Z=3.944, 4.210, 2.834, 1.190, 5.497, 1.180, t=3.987, 3.411, respectively, all P<0.05). The lymphocyte count, CD3 + T lymphocyte proportion, CD3 + T lymphocyte count, CD8 + T lymphocyte proportion, CD8 + T lymphocyte count, CD16 + CD56 + T lymphocyte count and CD4 + T lymphocyte count were all lower than those in survival group, which were 0.47(0.37, 0.96)×10 9/L vs 1.33(0.90, 1.55)×10 9/L, 48.72%(42.31%, 76.92%) vs 69.91%(65.05%, 75.36%), 223.0(100.0, 403.0)/μL vs 761.0(499.0, 1 092.0)/μL, 13.82%(10.32%, 19.82%) vs 24.90%(20.87%, 29.57%), 55.5(30.5, 106.0)/μL vs 318.0(162.5, 443.5)/μL, 63.0(29.0, 99.5)/μL vs 140.0(69.5, 195.5)/μL and (209.74±140.13)/μL vs (487.61±232.02)/μL, respectively. The differences were all statistically significant ( Z=6.937, 3.944, 5.883, 3.924, 5.703, 3.517 and t=7.558, respectively, all P<0.01). Age, history of hypertension, white blood cell count, D-dimer, and fibrinogen were the risk factors for death of COVID-19 (odds ratio ( OR)=1.170, 10.405, 3.055, 1.128 and 1.343, respectively, all P<0.05). Conclusion:Age, underlying hypertension, white blood cell count, D-dimer and fibrinogen are independent prognostic factors for COVID-19.