Preliminary study of SII-N scoring model in predicting the prognosis of elderly patients with esophageal cancer / 中华放射肿瘤学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate whether TNM staging combined with systemic immune inflammation index (SII) has a high predictive value for the clinical prognosis of elderly patients with esophageal cancer.Methods:Clinical data of 118 elderly patients with esophageal cancer who received radiotherapy and chemotherapy were retrospectively analyzed, and the SII was calculated. SII and clinicopathological features were included in the Cox proportional risk model, and the prognostic index (PI) equation was obtained. Kaplan- Meier survival analysis was adopted. According to PI, the survival of patients was predicted and the predictive values of PI and TNM were statistically compared. Results:Univariate analysis showed that SII, N staging and TNM staging were closely correlated with the overall survival (all P<0.01). Cox multivariate analysis revealed that SII and N staging were the independent risk factors for overall survival. According to the results of Cox analysis, the equation of PI=0.961 × SII grouping+ 0.523 × N staging was obtained. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn according to PI and overall survival, and the critical value was obtained and divided into different groups. The 1-, 2-and 3-year survival rates in the low-risk group were significantly higher than those in the high-risk group ( HR=0.365, 95% CI 0.221-0.604, P<0.001). The prediction of overall survival by SII-N[area under curve (AUC)=0.707] was significantly better than that by TNM staging (AUC=0.560, P<0.001). Conclusion:This study preliminarily proves that the SII-N prognosis score model is better than the traditional TNM staging, which may have guiding significance for the selection of therapeutic strategies for elderly patients with esophageal cancer, and is worthy of further study.