A nomogram prediction of bile leakage in patients undergoing cystic echinococcosis surgery / 中华肝胆外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the risk factors for bile leakage in patients undergoing cystic echinococcosis surgery to establish a nomogram model to predict the risk of bile leakage.Methods:The clinical data were retrospectively analyzed that 203 patients with cystic echinococcosis treated in Qinghai University Affiliated Hospital from January 2015 to October 2018. Logistic regression was used to screen out independent risk factors of biliary leakage in patients undergoing cystic hydatid surgery. Then the R software was used to establish a predictive nomogram model. Bootstrap method was used to validate the nomogram model and ROC curve was used to explore the predictive efficacy of the model in predicting the bile leakage.Results:There were 54 cases of biliary leakage in 203 patients with cystic echinococcosis, the incidence was 26.1%. ALP ( OR=11.193, 95% CI 5.066-24.731), GGT ( OR=2.728, 95% CI 1.246-5.975), cyst diameter ( OR=3.491, 95% CI 1.550-7.861), hilar cyst ( OR=2.503, 95% CI 1.176-5.329) were all independent risk factors for biliary leakage of cystic echinococcosis. The consistency index was 0.835 for predicting PPC risk, and the area was 0.823 (95% CI 0.754-0.892) under the curve for predicting the risk of cystic echinococcal bile leakage. Conclusions:ALP, GGT, cyst diameter and hepatic hilar cyst are independent risk factors for cystic echinococcal bile leakage. Nomogram model can evaluate the risk of cystic echinococcal bile leakage more intuitively, with potentially high clinical application value.