Serum ceruloplasmin level in predicting 30-day outcome of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure / 中华临床感染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the value of serum ceruloplasmin (CP) levels in predicting the outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).Methods:The clinical data of 1 751 patients with HBV-ACLF treated in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2010 to March 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. According to 30-day outcomes, 1 220 survival patients were classified into group A; 465 fatal patients and 46 patients receiving liver transplantation were classified into group B (total 531 cases). Risk factors associated with 30-day survival were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. ROC curve analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive value of CP on the 30-day outcome of patients with HBV-ACLF.Results:Multivariate analysis indicated that CP, albumin and alpha fetoprotein were independent protective factors for 30-day survival of HBV-ACLF patients ( P<0.05 or <0.01), while age, white blood cell count, AST, total bilirubin, INR, serum creatinine, HBV DNA, hepatorenal syndrome and hepatic encephalopathy were independent risk factors ( P<0.01). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of CP was 0.570 (95% CI 0.540-0.599, P<0.01); while AUC of MELD score was 0.783 (95% CI 0.759-0.807, P<0.01) and MELD-Na score was 0.774 (95% CI 0.750-0.798, P<0.01). Compared with MELD score and MELD-Na score, the value of CP in predicting the 30-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients was lower ( P<0.01). The cut-off value of CP for predicting 30-day outcome of HBV-ACLF patients was 0.173 g/L, with the sensitivity of 69.4%, and the specificity of 41.6%. According to the cut-off value, the patients were divided into low CP level group (level of CP<0.173 g/L) and high CP level group (level of CP≥0.173 g/L); the 30-day cumulative survival rate of low CP level group was lower than that of high CP level group ( χ2=17.75, P<0.01). Conclusions:Serum CP level can predict the 30-day outcome of HBV-ACLF patients to a certain extent.