Assessment of transmission capacity of influenza and effect evaluation of suspension measures in schools and nurseries / 中国学校卫生

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To estimate the transmission capacity of influenza clustering in schools and nurseries, and to evaluate the effect of suspension measures, providing a basis for formulating disease management strategies and control measures.@*Methods@#The SEIAR dynamics model was used to simulate the epidemic data, calculating the basic regeneration coefficient R 0 of the epidemic to evaluate the epidemic transmission capacity, and calculating the cumulative incidence rate of the epidemic to evaluate the prevention and control effect of the suspension measures.@*Results@#The basic regeneration coefficient R 0 was 8.44(8.01,8.89) without intervention. There were statistically significant differences in R 0 of influenza epidemic among different types of school(F=9.52, P<0.01). The R 0 of influenza epidemic in primary and secondary schools were higher than that in nurseries(P<0.05). R 0 of influenza A was higher than that of influenza B(t=2.71, P<0.01). R 0 of influenza A(H3) was higher than of influenza B(Victoria)(P<0.05). The cumulative incidence of the outbreaks which were suspended for 4 days and 7 days was significantly lower than that in the non-suspensions(P<0.05). However, there was no significant difference in the cumulative incidence of the outbreaks between the 4-day suspension and the 7-day suspension(P>0.05).@*Conclusion@#Transmission capacity of school-based influenza epidemic is high, especially among primary and secondary schools. When the epidemic situation of infected class meets the suspension standard, it is recommended to suspend classes for 4 days.