Construction and verification of a new nomogram for predicting stone recurrence after endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy at high altitude / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo investigate related factors for stone recurrence after endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, and to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of stone recurrence after surgery based on independent risk factors. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 144 patients with gallstones who underwent endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy in Qinghai University Affiliated Hospital from January 2012 to January 2018, and according to postoperative stone recurrence, the patients were divided into non-recurrence group and recurrence group. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. LASSO and logistic regression analyses were used to analyze independent risk factors for postoperative stone recurrence, and the corresponding nomogram prediction model was plotted according to regression coefficient. The calibration curve was plotted to evaluate the reliability of the predictive nomogram; Harrell consistency index was used to quantify the discriminatory performance of the predictive nomogram; the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of this predictive nomogram. ResultsAll 144 patients underwent successful endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, among whom 14 patients (9.7%) experienced stone recurrence after surgery. The multivariate analysis showed that family history (odds ratio ［OR］= 3.245, 95% confidence interval ［CI］ 0.752-13567, P=0.104), regular diet (OR=3.752, 95% CI 1.067-14.141, P=0.041), stone homogeneity (OR=5.871, 95% CI 1636-25.390, P=0.010), and medication compliance (OR=0.225, 95% CI 0.057-0.799, P=0.024) were independent risk factors for recurrence. The nomogram model had an index of concordance (C-index) of 0.835 (95% CI 0.732-0.938) in the modeling sample and 0.7925 in the verification sample, suggesting that the nomogram model in this study had good accuracy and discrimination. The predictive nomogram had an AUC of 0.835, suggesting that this nomogram had a relatively high predictive value. ConclusionFamily history, regular diet, stone homogeneity, and medication compliance are independent risk factors for stone recurrence after endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, and the nomogram constructed based on these independent risk factors may help to predict the risk of postoperative stone recurrence.