Empirical Research on Export Trade Relations of Guangdong Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry Based on VAR Model / 中国药房

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE：To provide reference for increasing t he export trade of Guangdong ’s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry，and improving the proportion of pharmaceutical manufacturing export and internationalization level. METHODS ：The data of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Guangdong province were collected from 1998 to 2019，and vector autoregressive （VAR）model was established. The relationship of export trade activities （export delivery value ），R&D investment （R&D internal expenditure） and technological innovation （technological transformation cost ） of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Guangdong province were explored empirically through cointegration relationship test ，Granger causality test ，impulse response function and variance decomposition. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS ：Through the cointegration relationship test and Granger causality test ，it could be seen that there was a stable equilibrium relationship among the export trade activities of Guangdong pharmaceutical manufacturing industry ，R&D investment and technological innovation. Technological innovation was the Granger cause of export delivery value and could positively promotes the increase in export trade activities ，with a lag period of 2 years. The export delivery value was the Granger reason for R&D investment ，which could promote the increase of R&D investment ，and the influence will become greater and greater over time. R&D investment is the Granger cause of technological innovation ，which can promotes the increase of technological innovation. Through impulse response function and variance decomposition ，it could be known that the export trade activities ，R&D investment and technological innovation of Guangdong ’s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry had a dynamic interaction relationship. The change in export delivery value is mainly affected by itself ，and technological innovation is an auxiliary promotion effect （contribution rate of 7％）. It is suggested that enterprises should pay attention to technological transformation and R&D investment ，build high-tech pharmaceutical manufacturing industry ，give full play to the characteristics of Lingnan traditional Chinese medicine products ， enhance the technological competitiveness of export pharmaceutical products ，optimize the layout of pharmaceutical industry ，and enhance international competitiveness.