Correlation between incidence of dengue and climatic factors in the Philippines: An ecological study / The Health Sciences Journal

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION@#Dengue continues to be a major health concern in the Philippines. This study aimed to establish trends and correlations between the incidence of dengue and rainfall, humidity and temperature, respectively, in the different regions.@*METHODS@#Using 2018 records obtained from DOH and PAGASA, correlations were made between monthly measurements of climatic factors and the incidence of dengue using Pearson’s r, while maps and interpolations were generated using quantum geographical information system software.@*RESULTS@#There was a significant positive but weak correlation between the incidence of dengue and rainfall (r = 0.379, 95% CI 0.255, 0.491; p < 0.001) and humidity (r = 0.215, 95% CI 0.080, 0.342; p = 0.002). There was a significant negative but weak correlation between the incidence of dengue and temperature (r = -0.145, 95% CI -0.277, -0.008; p = 0.039). A strong positive correlation was noted between the incidence of dengue, and rainfall and humidity, respectively, in several regions. Multiple regression indicates that rainfall, humidity and temperature are poor predictors of the incidence of dengue (R2 = 0.1436, 0.0461 and 0.0209, respectively).@*CONCLUSION@#This study showed overall a significant but weak correlation between an increased incidence of dengue and heavy rainfalls and high relative humidity, and a weak negative correlation for temperature. A high positive correlation of an increased incidence of dengue and heavy rainfalls and high relative humidity was observed in several regions.