Comparison of the early control process of H7N9 avian influenza in Shanghai and COVID-19 in Wuhan / 上海预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze and estimate the possibility of early control in Shanghai if COVID-19 had begun in Shanghai. Methods Comparison was made in the processes of early control between H7N9 avian influenza in Shanghai in 2013 and COVID-19 in Wuhan in 2019.The early incidence data of Korean COVID-19 was simulated and analyzed to predict whether the medical resources needed in Shanghai were available. Results If it had occurred in Shanghai, it would have taken 22 days from the first case to the government′s emergency response.It was estimated that there would have been 602-763 patients with cumulative onset and onset after incubation period.At least 500 beds of infectious diseases could have been allocated in Shanghai in case of emergency.Through adding beds and resources reallocation in the whole city, patients could have been fully admitted and treated. Conclusion If COVID-19 epidemic had occurred in Shanghai, it′s early control would have been possible though there might have difficulties.