Cure and death situation in early outbreak of COVID-19 in China / 上海预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the cure and mortality trend in the early outbreak of COVID-19 in China, to increase its entire epidemiological understanding, providing evidence for assessing the prevention and control measures against it and input-output in this regard. Methods Data were collected concerning daily new confirmed cases, the cumulative cure and death cases in China and Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province, which were reported officially from January 20th, 2020 to February 20th, 2020.Calculation was done of the fatality rate, the ratio of the numbers of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death cases, etc, and then the epidemiological description was made. Results As of Feb 20, 2020, the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Hubei Province was 3.42%, which was a little higher than the national figure of 2.96%.The fatality rate of COVID-19 outside Hubei Province in China was 0.71%.The trends on the indexes, including the daily new cure cases, daily new death and the ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death, in Hubei Province and the whole country were found to be highly consistent, while the significant difference existed between Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province in China.The daily ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death in Hubei Province (the whole country) exhibited the U-curve trend, which reached the lowest point on Jan 27 and subsequently rose more rapidly after Feb 5. Conclusion The ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death is easier and effective to reflect the outbreak situation than other absolute indexes like the daily new cure cases or death.Since Feb 5, 2020, the daily cure status of COVID-19 is significantly better than the daily death, which indicates the effectiveness of series of the joint defense and control measures.However, plenty of challenges exist in recovering normal production and life when the epidemic comes to be sustainably prevented and controlled.