Evaluation and prediction analysis of 5-year survival rate of cervical cancer patients based on cycle analysis / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To understand the relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients in our hospital in the past 5 years, and to predict the relative survival rate in the next 5 years. The study can provide data information and scientific basis for cervical cancer prevention and treatment in Changde City. Methods According to the tumor registration database of our hospital, the 5-year relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients from 2010 to 2014 was evaluated by the cycle analysis method, and further stratified analysis was carried out according to the age of diagnosis and the township area. By establishing a generalized linear model based on the cycle analysis method, we predict the 5-year relative survival rate of patients in the future 2015-2019 period. Results From 2005 to 2019, the incidence of cervical cancer was the highest in the 45-54 age group, accounting for 40.54%. The incidence of cervical cancer was the lowest in the age group over 74, accounting for 2.72%. From 2010 to 2014, the overall 5-year relative survival rate of cervical cancer patients in our hospital was 92.73%, and the 5-year relative survival rates of patients 74 years old were 93.51%, 92.82%, 89.16%, 85.71% and 63.83%, respectively. The 5-year relative survival rates of urban and rural patients were 94.73% and 91.86%, respectively. It is predicted that the overall 5-year relative survival rate from 2015 to 2019 is 93.78%. Conclusion Compared with the previous second 5-year periods, the 5-year relative survival rate of patients in the future 2015-2019 will still show an upward trend, the age difference gradient will continue to be maintained, and the urban-rural difference will further decrease.