Effects of climate changes on the distribution of Rhipicephalus microplus in China / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To identify the environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of Rhipicephalus microplus in China, and to examine the impact of climate changes on the distribution of R. microplus in China. Methods The national and international publications pertaining to the geographical distribution of R. microplus in China were retrieved, and the geographical location was extracted. The suitable habitats of R. microplus and the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of R. microplus were predicted in China based on the geographical data and environmental variables using the ArcGIS 10.7 software and the maximum entropy model. Results Among the main climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of R. microplus in China, the factors contributing more than 10% to the suitable habitats of R. microplus mainly include the annual mean precipitation (38.2%), the average temperature of the coldest quarter (28.4%) and the precipitation of the driest month (14.2%). The current suitable habitats of R. microplus were mainly found in southern China, and the high-, medium- and low-suitable areas accounted for 8.6%, 13.1% and 10.5% of the total land area of China, respectively. The suitable habitats of R. microplus were predicted to increase by 399 800 km2 in China using the maximum entropy model under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario in 2070, and the emerging suitable habitats were mainly distributed in Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, Hebei Province, Shaanxi Province, Liaoning Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shandong Province, Sichuan Province and Tibeten Autonomous Region. In addition, the suitable habitats of R. microplus were predicted to show an overall expansion towards northward from present to 2070. Conclusions Climate changes affect the distribution of suitable habitats of R. microplus in China, and annual mean precipitation may be a key factor affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of R. microplus.