Effects of environmental factors on the distribution of suitable habitats of Ixodes ovatus in China / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To identify the environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of Ixodes ovatus, and to examine the effects of environmental changes on the distribution of suitable habitats of I. ovatus. Methods Data pertaining to the distribution of I. ovatus in China were captured by literature review. The distribution of suitable habitats of I. ovatus in China was simulated using the maximum entropy model with the environmental variable data and the I. ovatus distribution data. In addition, the potential distribution of suitable habitats of I. ovatus was predicted based on the 2050 and 2070 environmental data. Results The current suitable habitats of I. ovatus cover 3.11 million km2, accounting for 32.28% of the total land area of China, and they are mainly concentrated in southwestern and northwestern China. Among the screened 16 environmental factors, the standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature, average annual precipitation and altitude were predominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of I. ovatus, and these three variables contributed 76.5% to the distribution of suitable habitats of I. ovatus in China. The suitable habitats of I. ovatus were predicted to showing a tendency towards expansion to northwestern and northeastern China in 2050 and 2070, and the proportion of highly suitable habitats of I. ovatus was predicted to increase. Conclusions Moderate climate, adequate precipitation and high altitude are favorable for the survival of I. ovatus. Future climate changes may cause expansion of suitable habitats of I. ovatus in China.