Epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2018 and prediction of grey GM (1, 1) model / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To discover the epidemic characteristics of brucellosis in Yunnan Province, and establish a grey GM (1, 1) model to predict brucellosis in Yunnan Province.Methods:The epidemic data of incidence rate of brucellosis and population data in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2018 were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System and Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Epidemiological characteristics (including time, area and population distributions) were analyzed, and grey GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the incidence of brucellosis in Yunnan Province in 2019 and 2020.Results:A total of 1 216 brucellosis cases were reported in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2018, with an average annual incidence rate of 0.237 4/100 000, showing an increasing trend year by year (χ 2trend = 843.34, P<0.01). Case reports were mainly from March to September, accounted for 69.41% (844/1 216) of the total number of cases. The top five regions with case reports were Honghe (289 cases), Qujing (264 cases), Kunming (258 cases), Dali (160 cases), and Yuxi (134 cases), accounting for 90.87% (1 105/1 216). The occupation was mainly farmers, accounting for 79.03% (961/1 216). A grey GM (1, 1) model was established to predict the incidence of brucellosis in Yunnan Province in 2019 and 2020, which was 0.487 6/100 000 and 0.481 7/100 000, respectively. Conclusion:The incidence of brucellosis in Yunnan Province has increased compared with that of the past, and targeted prevention and control should be carried out in key areas and key populations, and the prediction results should be prospectively evaluated to gradually improve the establishment of brucellosis prediction model in Yunnan Province.